The purpose of this recommended practice (RP) is to describe risk analysis concepts that can be used when important alternative selection strategies are being developed by senior leaders. These selections are made well before there is a detailed project plan, schedule, and cost estimate. The RP describes the development of simplified models to assess alternatives under consideration. These models highlight key systemic and project-specific risk characteristics. They provide clarity, transparency, traceability, and repeatability consistent with recommended project risk analysis practices. Models are presented here to illustrate two of these methods, probabilistic branching and conditional branching.

During the “Select” phase1 for any significant project, strategic alternatives are being evaluated, and one of the main considerations will include the balance of risk driving any alternative. This recommended practice (RP) addresses decision modeling using quantified risk analysis methods to conduct an analysis of alternatives (AoA). The model is simplified to highlight the key risks and feasible alternative configurations, to select the best alternative. This RP document is not intended to be a standard. Rather it is intended to provide a guideline for using project risk analysis simulation capabilities of probabilistic and conditional branching to evaluate alternative selection within a simplified model framework of the project’s strategy. RPs are considered by most practitioners to be good processes that can be relied on and that they would recommend be considered for use where applicable. The RP will be useful to organizational leaders and decision-makers, project management, and risk team leaders.

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