Skip to main content

(EST-3700) Discrete Event Simulation as a Tool for Cost Estimating

In order to receive proof of CEU credits, you must watch this presentation in its entirety and complete the survey.

Level: Basic
TCM Section(s):
7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting
7.4. Resource Planning
Venue: 2021 AACE International Conference & Expo

Abstract: The Office of Program An
alysis and Evaluation (PA&E) within the National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA) is charged with leading programmatic cost estimating and associated analytical support throughout the federal budgeting process. As part of its mission, NNSA recently authorized the reestablishment to manufacture plutonium pits for nuclear weapons. This manufacturing process involves a significant number of process steps, each requiring unique equipment and specialized gloveboxes.

While NNSA scientists have worked to modernize this manufacturing processes since the previous facility closure in 1989, no full-scale facility currently exists. To aid in project development and budget planning, PA&E has developed a discrete event simulation model of the anticipated production process to estimate equipment types and quantities for a stipulated confidence level. This analysis has been used to estimate the necessary facility size, associated equipment needs, and manpower requirements for the production of different pit designs to aid in effective budgeting, and to meet the annual production rate requirements set by Congress.