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(EST-1916) Regression-Based Estimation of Material Quantities Using Case-Based Reasoning

Primary Author: Dr Borja Garcia de Soto PE
Co-Author(s): Mr Bryan T Adey

Audience Focus: Advanced
Application Type: Research
Venue: 2015 AACE International Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, NV, USA

Abstract: Accurate estimation of the construction material quantities (CMQs) to be used in construction projects is an important part of good project management. Case-based reasoning (CBR) is one of the techniques that is increasingly used to make estimates. To ensure that the CMQ estimates developed using CBR are as accurate as possible the initially retrieved and reused estimates need to be adapted to take into consideration the specific characteristics of the project for which the CMQs are to be estimated.

In this paper, a process to be used to adapt the initially retrieved and reused CMQ estimates for structures in manufacturing plants is used. The proposed adaptation process is based on regression analysis. The estimates made with and without the proposed adaptation process are compared. It is shown that the use of the proposed adaptation process results in reductions in the mean absolute percentage error of estimated CMQs.