Primary Author: William W. Davis
Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Research
Venue: 2016 AACE International Annual Meeting, Toronto, ON, Canada
Abstract: Want to make confident estimates? How confident do you want to be? Highly confident estimates mean higher project costs and longer schedules. Lower project costs and shorter schedules involve more risk and less certainty. In this paper, you will use Microsoft Excel's built-in statistical functions and a new, simple estimation technique called Statistical PERT. Statistical PERT lets estimators easily make probabilistic estimates for virtually any bell-shaped uncertainty. And unlike other estimation techniques, Statistical PERT allows estimators to use subjective opinion about how likely the most likely outcome really is to influence the resulting probabilistic estimates.
Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Research
Venue: 2016 AACE International Annual Meeting, Toronto, ON, Canada
Abstract: Want to make confident estimates? How confident do you want to be? Highly confident estimates mean higher project costs and longer schedules. Lower project costs and shorter schedules involve more risk and less certainty. In this paper, you will use Microsoft Excel's built-in statistical functions and a new, simple estimation technique called Statistical PERT. Statistical PERT lets estimators easily make probabilistic estimates for virtually any bell-shaped uncertainty. And unlike other estimation techniques, Statistical PERT allows estimators to use subjective opinion about how likely the most likely outcome really is to influence the resulting probabilistic estimates.