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(EVM-3508) Analysis of the Earned Schedule Forecasting Accuracy

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Level: Advanced
TCM Section(s):
10.1. Project Performance Assessment
10.2. Forecasting
Venue: 2020 AACE International Conference & Expo

Abstract: The independent estimate at completion (IEAC) is a time-based earned schedule (ES) method that allows the analyst to estimate the duration of a project according to the information available for a period of time. The fact that there are two approved equations that may give different results hinders the acceptance of this important analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the two equations and determine which is more accurate to estimate the final duration of a project. In this analysis, the average absolute percentage error, completed percentage, seriality of the network diagram and productivity index (PI) have been used to evaluate the accuracy of the two equations.

A study of eight real projects with early and late completion will be used to determine the accuracy of each method. The conclusion is that when the schedule performance index based on the time is less than 1 or the project has a delay, the equation of the IEAC with the PF=1 begins to lose accuracy and the equation of the IEAC with the SPI begins to gain accuracy or has fewer errors.