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(PM-3124) Disruption Quantification in Small and Medium EPC Projects: A System Dynamics Model

Level: Intermediate
Venue: 2019 AACE International Conference & Expo, June 16-19, 2019, New Orleans, LA, USA

Abstract: Change is a fact of life in Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) projects however change impacts (cost, schedule and productivity) are usually estimated in isolation, there is no generally accepted way to assess the cumulative effects of multiple changes either before or after the events. This presents huge problems for small and medium sized contractors.

This paper describes the design, build and testing of a radically simplified system dynamics model intended to assist project management deal with the complex interaction of changes on productivity and quality, to forecast their cost and schedule impacts, and evaluate ways to mitigate or avoid them.

Starting with the rework cycle with feedback, a system dynamics model was developed. The model was expanded to include multiple feedback loops. The minimum complexity was added to capture the interaction and feedback of timing and magnitude of changes and their effects on productivity, quality, cost and schedule.