Primary Author: Rahul S. Mulik, CCP
Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Research
Venue: 2016 AACE International Annual Meeting, Toronto, ON, Canada
Abstract: Megaprojects are growing exponentially in scale and complexity, while their time and cost constraints are becoming stricter. They develop as meta-organizations comprising multiple legally autonomous entities, procured temporarily by the megaproject owners to work together to deliver a strategic asset. At megaprojects, these interdependent interacting entities evolve together as complex adaptive systems. The megaproject success is an artifact of multiple context-specific circumstances. Empirical studies show that megaprojects have a dismal track record because project management practices have not been adjusted to fit the uncertainties they present. “Uncertainty” is a systemic risk whose numerical probability of occurrence is not objective or quantitatively determinate. However it is possible to conduct sensitivity analysis of uncertainties, which would permit quantitative results when those uncertainties manifest. Current project management practices apply only to a megaproject environment of objectively quantifiable risks. The uncertainties defy their logic and require systems approach.
This paper characterizes megaprojects as meta-organizations and complex adaptive systems. It discusses how uncertainties threaten the megaproject performance, and proposes “scenario analysis” as a qualitative method to manage those uncertainties.
Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Research
Venue: 2016 AACE International Annual Meeting, Toronto, ON, Canada
Abstract: Megaprojects are growing exponentially in scale and complexity, while their time and cost constraints are becoming stricter. They develop as meta-organizations comprising multiple legally autonomous entities, procured temporarily by the megaproject owners to work together to deliver a strategic asset. At megaprojects, these interdependent interacting entities evolve together as complex adaptive systems. The megaproject success is an artifact of multiple context-specific circumstances. Empirical studies show that megaprojects have a dismal track record because project management practices have not been adjusted to fit the uncertainties they present. “Uncertainty” is a systemic risk whose numerical probability of occurrence is not objective or quantitatively determinate. However it is possible to conduct sensitivity analysis of uncertainties, which would permit quantitative results when those uncertainties manifest. Current project management practices apply only to a megaproject environment of objectively quantifiable risks. The uncertainties defy their logic and require systems approach.
This paper characterizes megaprojects as meta-organizations and complex adaptive systems. It discusses how uncertainties threaten the megaproject performance, and proposes “scenario analysis” as a qualitative method to manage those uncertainties.