The uniqueness of megaprojects requires
any effort to make sense of their behavior to successfully utilize
expert knowledge. Success of industrial megaprojects relies heavily on
the knowledge and experience of the owners, project managers, engineers,
financiers and other organizations and parties within the project. This
valuable project knowledge is held within organizations either as
explicit and in documents, or, tacit and by the members of the project
team. Quantifying and elicitation of this knowledge requires a framework
that outlines its utilization. This paper outlines a methodology to
systematically collect expert knowledge for probabilistic reasoning on
megaproject behavior. The reasoning process is developed based on the
failure path and driver view of project risk and failures mechanism.
Results of a pilot survey study on the method, along with the created
probabilistic model is presented.