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Level: Intermediate
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
3.3. Investment Decision Making
Venue: 2020 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: Would the application of historical data and integrated cost, schedule, and risk analysis have improved the reliability of Thomas Jefferson’s initial estimate for the Lewis and Clark expedition in 1803? Using integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of contingency reserves on projects continues to demonstrate improved results over the traditional methods. These methods are most often reserved for mega-projects and have not yet “trickled down” to the majority of those we estimate in industry. This paper seeks to examine the application of Recommended Practice 57R-09 to more common, phase-gate projects of moderate size, scope and complexity through lightweight, flexible Microsoft Excel modeling. The paper focuses on the use of historical data to inform cost and schedule uncertainty, capturing both the known and unknown risks inherent in the data- improving the speed, accessibility, and applicability of integrated cost, schedule, and risk analysis on the common project. To demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of these concepts, this paper explores the application of integrated cost schedule and risk analysis for the historical Lewis and Clark Expedition.
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
3.3. Investment Decision Making
Venue: 2020 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: Would the application of historical data and integrated cost, schedule, and risk analysis have improved the reliability of Thomas Jefferson’s initial estimate for the Lewis and Clark expedition in 1803? Using integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of contingency reserves on projects continues to demonstrate improved results over the traditional methods. These methods are most often reserved for mega-projects and have not yet “trickled down” to the majority of those we estimate in industry. This paper seeks to examine the application of Recommended Practice 57R-09 to more common, phase-gate projects of moderate size, scope and complexity through lightweight, flexible Microsoft Excel modeling. The paper focuses on the use of historical data to inform cost and schedule uncertainty, capturing both the known and unknown risks inherent in the data- improving the speed, accessibility, and applicability of integrated cost, schedule, and risk analysis on the common project. To demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of these concepts, this paper explores the application of integrated cost schedule and risk analysis for the historical Lewis and Clark Expedition.