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(RISK-3492) Utilizing Scenario Planning on the Risk Assessment Exercise for High Complexity Projects

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Level: Intermediate
TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management
Venue: 2020 AACE International Conference & Expo

Abstract: Across many industries, scenario planning is regarded as an important strategic planning method with a variety of use cases but in its basic form it is employed to create flexible long-term plans. The planning method combines givens that are assumed about the future with key uncertainties and driving forces, identified by considering external and internal factors. The scenarios include plausible but unexpectedly important situations or complications that are subtle in the present but over time have the potential to create dramatic impacts on future events or strategies. This paper describes the utilization of the scenario planning method as an ad-hoc tool that compliments the SRA workshops. Following in-line with traditional project management processes, this planning method requires certain decisions to be made prior to identifying key uncertainties and plausible scenarios. Scenario planning creates the flexibility needed for thinking in a broader range of possible futures, enabling decision makers to understand and consider the full risk profile of programs and strategic plans more broadly.