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(RISK-3540) Conditional Branching Models How Project Managers Typically React to Schedule Overruns

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Level: Advanced
TCM Section(s): 7.6. Risk Management
Venue: 2020 AACE International Conference & Expo

Abstract: Project owners, project managers can be counted on to react to prospective schedule overruns by developing a “recovery schedule” that adds resources to try to make up time.However, analysts using Monte Carlo simulation typically model the current plan as if the manager will not react even if the schedule is jeopardized. This is not realistic.

When simulating a project schedule, the analyst needs to represent the manager’s response to delays as if there is still time to recover the schedule.Conditional branching can represent the project manager’s response to a schedule event such as the detailed engineering’s finishing later than anticipated by adding resources to shorten the execution phase to claw back the impending schedule overrun.

During a Monte Carlo simulation conditional branching can test each iteration for missing a key finish date.In the case study, a conditional branch is modeled with 2 possible plans. “Plan A” is the original fabrication schedule, and “Plan B” is a recovery fabrication schedule. The paper describes the logic simulating having a Plan B conditional branching and some results that may occur.