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Level: Advanced
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
Venue: 2021 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: This is a methodology designed to determine CAPEX differences for the implementation of the same project, through the comparison of risk perception from different perspectives.
The methodology, called comparative risk analysis method, consists of determining different confidence intervals to be applied to CAPEX necessary for project implementation, considering a given scope and varied modeling on how to implement. Alternative forms of contracting and contractual obligations are explored as models.
For the performance of the simulations, weights are assigned to different levels of impacts and the Monte Carlo method is applied.
As a result, a confidence interval is generated for each modeling considered in the simulation, so that there will be a specific CAPEX for each modeling and its percentile of the distribution curve.
The comparative risk analysis method can be considered as another alternative to be joined to existing methodologies for determining confidence intervals and contingencies.
Level: Advanced
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
Venue: 2021 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: This is a methodology designed to determine CAPEX differences for the implementation of the same project, through the comparison of risk perception from different perspectives.
The methodology, called comparative risk analysis method, consists of determining different confidence intervals to be applied to CAPEX necessary for project implementation, considering a given scope and varied modeling on how to implement. Alternative forms of contracting and contractual obligations are explored as models.
For the performance of the simulations, weights are assigned to different levels of impacts and the Monte Carlo method is applied.
As a result, a confidence interval is generated for each modeling considered in the simulation, so that there will be a specific CAPEX for each modeling and its percentile of the distribution curve.
The comparative risk analysis method can be considered as another alternative to be joined to existing methodologies for determining confidence intervals and contingencies.