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(RISK-3689) Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis: Application of Project Risk Twin Process for Major Infrastructure Projects using RIAAT (Digital Twin)

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Level: Intermediate
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
Venue: 2021 AACE International Conference & Expo

Abstract: Digital twin (DT) – a representation of an object or process from the real into the digital world. Key aspects are the transfer of data and the ability to run simulations as to predict possible future outcomes. This term is also used to describe digital models of large infrastructure projects as in recent years there have been significant technological advances in the areas of modeling and simulation. The same applies to the great progress that has been made in the integrated modeling of project cost, schedule and the risks associated with these projects.

This paper discusses the project risk twin (PRT) process, which considers the correct application of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis with additional advanced features such as risk correlations, dependencies and linkage, event tree analysis, Poisson distributions for multiple risk occurrences, calculation of potential future delay cost (i.e., liquidated damages and penalty cost), and escalation. The PRT process accompanies the project throughout the planning, construction and operation phase. Key benefits are understanding, analyzing and proactively mitigating risks, avoiding construction delays and developing and seizing opportunities. This is achieved through the application of advanced modeling techniques and simulation to predict future outcomes.

Demonstration of an application of the PRT and the abovementioned features are presented in the case study. The model is built up and visualized using RIAAT (risk administration and analysis tool) software.

The PRT process discussed in this paper is consistent with the AACE Recommended Practice “57R-09: Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Using Risk Drivers and Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model”. The paper also highlights additional features of the PRT process not covered by RP 57R-09.