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(RISK-1822) Delay Principles Based on Completion Risk

Primary Author: Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon PE
Co-Author(s): Dr. Vivek Puri

Audience Focus: Advanced
Application Type: Application
Venue: 2015 AACE International Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, NV, USA

Abstract: Where the approach to scheduling a project is deterministic, the critical path is deemed to be certain. Conventional delay principles flowing from this assumption include: 1) a delay off the critical path within total float does not impact completion, and 2) a delay on the critical path equates to a day-per-day delay in completion. A delay on the critical path could therefore be construed as reasonable evidence of potential breach of contract. When the project schedule is instead managed based on completion risk, the assumption underlying conventional delay principles no longer applies. Introduction of risk in project scheduling gives rise to emerging delay principles that better align with the concept of completion risk. This paper presents a realistic and practical framework to measure the likely impact of a delay based on completion risk and demonstrates the use of these principles using a case study.