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(RISK-2701) Risk Dependency Analysis in Complex Projects

Level: Advanced
Author(s): Paolo Cavanna; Franco Caron; Filippo Fratoni
Venue: 2017 AACE International Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL

Abstract: Given the rising complexity in projects, the dependencies and the interdependencies between major risks are critical issues for large engineering projects. Current Project Risk Analysis and Management (PRAM) does not clearly manage relationships between risks, though threats are not independent in complex projects.

For that reason, a method was developed to support PRAM, introducing the phases of Dependency Identification, Dependency Assessment and Dependency Quantification.

The aim of Dependency Identification is to identify risk dependencies and interdependencies with a Design Structure Matrix (DSM) and gather them in clusters.

In Dependency Assessment, an unconventional approach considers risk dependencies as events with their own probabilities.

A procedure for evaluating probability of occurrence of dependencies has been developed and the effects of risk dependencies are quantified during Dependency Quantification.

The output of this method is a tool estimating with Monte Carlo simulation delays and cost overruns caused by dependencies between major risks. An analysis of six Oil & Gas projects tests this method out.