Description

1) Building a Web App for Future Climate Precipitation-Frequency Analysis
Thomas Williams, PE, WSP, thomas.williams3@woodplc.com
Co-presenters: None

Abstract: Due to climate change, the shape of future extreme precipitation likeliness is uncertain. This is problematic for floodplain managers, public works departments, transportation agencies, and other water resources stakeholders, because extreme event estimates drive risk planning and engineering design. However, using appropriate datasets and techniques, future extreme precipitation can be estimated. WSP developed a web application (ClimateEVA) for analyzing downscaled global climate model (GCM) future precipitation and current NOAA Atlas-14 data, producing future climate precipitation-frequency estimates that are relevant at a local scale. Currently leveraging the LOCA CMIP5 downscaling, this application covers the extent of Atlas-14 within the lower 48 states. Analysis is dynamic; time periods, climate model groups, statistical distribution types can be adjusted as necessary. Estimates are provided for both the RCP 4.5 (“intermediate”) and RCP 8.5 (“no action”) climate modeling scenarios. Resulting “future climate” precipitation-frequency curves can help inform long-term planning.

2) Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation Assessment Portal: Informing Communities How Climate Change Impacts Our Nation
Jon Ordog, PMP, ABS Group, jordog@eagle.org
Co-presenters: Nathan Montague, nmontague@eagle.org

Abstract: In collaboration with NOAA, DOI, and ESRI, the Biden-Harris Administration released the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) portal that allows communities to view their exposure to extreme weather events in the face of a changing climate. The CMRA has a wealth of data that includes current and future climate conditions, social vulnerability, building codes, and social equity. Communities can use the CMRA’s data to build climate resilience plans and obtain federal grant funding to build back better for homes and infrastructure. This presentation will showcase the powerful tools within the CMRA portal, advanced use cases to determine climate change exposure across five hazards (Riverine Flooding, Coastal Inundation, Extreme Heat, Drought, & Wildfire), and how this platform can efficiently link climate risk with grant funding to increase a community’s resilience. Through ABS Group’s support to FEMA’s Climate Change Response and Recovery Planning Guidance; RiskMAP Program, National Planning Branch, and National Hurricane Program, our team has utilized CMRA, the National Risk Index, Hazus, and other natural hazard and climate change tools to better inform communities of their risk exposure over time.

3) Evaluating Impacts of Sea Level Rise at SR 30 Bridge over St Joe Bay Inlet
Rosemary Cyriac, Atkins, rosemary.cyriac@atkinsglobal.com
Co-presenters: Mike Salisbury, PE, DCE Email: Michael.Salisbury@atkinsglobal.com

Abstract: The National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Transportation Research Board developed the NCHRP 15-61 guidance document for incorporating climate change impacts into the design of transportation infrastructure projects. Specific to projects located near tidally dominated waters along the coast, the document provides guidance for incorporating sea level rise (SLR) into the design process to increase resiliency and mitigate against future climate change impacts. After the release of this document, the NCHRP engaged state Departments of Transportation to review the document and perform pilot studies to test the implementation of the new guidance. To this end, the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) Central Office Drainage Group requested that Atkins perform an example application of the procedures provided in NCHRP 15-61 to incorporate climate change (specifically SLR) for a coastal bridge project. The SR 30 (US 98) St. Joe Bay Inlet Bridge was used as an example case and the Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) over the design life of the project was estimated following the six-step procedure described in the NCHRP 15-61 guidance. A Level 2 analysis was then performed incorporating the RSLR value into the model setup and the design storm surge and wave scenarios were re-simulated. Results of the model simulations with and without RSLR included were compared and used to re-calculate wave forces on the bridge deck. Results of the revised wave force calculations indicate a significant increase in the wave loadings on the bridge structure. Finally, a probabilistic approach was implemented to estimate the impact of SLR on future extreme water levels at the location of the bridge. This analysis is less complex than a Level 3 analysis, which is a more robust assessment that requires a large number of model simulations to consider the joint probability of storm surge and SLR events. In the present work, an extreme value analysis was conducted on a set of combined water levels obtained by considering a superposition of storm surge and SLR effects and the result is a flood risk curve that better captures the potential risk to the bridge over the lifetime of the structure compared to deterministic methods. This presentation will describe an example application of incorporating climate change impacts in the design of coastal infrastructure and will demonstrate a unique probabilistic approach to compute future extreme water levels at a project site in the presence of future SLR