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Session 3: A Prototype Actuaries Climate Risk Index

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Description

[PART OF THE 2024 CAS CLIMATE RISK VIRTUAL SEMINAR]

Steve and Tatjana are members of the CAS Climate Change Task Force tasked with climate change research that is currently focused on climate risk analytics. This session will present the development of a prototype Climate Risk Index by modeling US Disaster costs using climate extreme components of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) and other tools. The session will show how predictive ACI climate-extreme component measures explain growth in catastrophic disaster losses due to climate risk. The work of the CAS Climate Change Task Force will also illustrate how to construct frequency and severity trend models from aggregate risk data.

The presentation will also include a look at other climate risk analytic solutions, based on a review of available literature, including FEMA's National Risk Index.

Learning Objectives:

  1. Gain familiarity with the Actuaries Climate Index and a prototype Climate Risk Index.
  2. Know where to find Aggregate Catastrophe Data and how to prepare it for modeling.

Contributors

  • Stephen Kolk

    Steve Kolk, MAAA, ACAS - actuary and president of the risk analysis consulting firm, Kolkulations LLC. He is considered one of the nation’s foremost actuarial experts on climate change risk analytics. He gained this expertise as an active member of the CAS Climate Change Committee. He remains actively involved in emerging climate change risk issues. Along with chairing the CAS Climate Change Task Force, he also chairs the the American Academy of Actuaries’ Extreme Events and Property Lines Committee and serves as vice chair of the IAA's Resource and Environment Forum. He is also a Michigan Native who graduated with honors from Calvin University in Grand Rapids with a B.A. in mathematics.

  • Tatjana Miljkovic

    Tatjana Miljkovic is an associate professor and actuarial science adviser in the Department of Statistics at Miami University. She brings many years of industry experience to the classroom, which plays an important role in the successful mentoring and advising of students. Her primary research interests are actuarial science and applied statistics that cover topics in mixture modeling and clustering, applications of the EM algorithm, tail risk measures and capital requirements in insurance, and applications of statistics to health topics and climate change. As a statistician, she has also collaborated on a number of interdisciplinary projects with her colleagues from other research areas. In her free time, Tatjana enjoys cooking, swimming, and traveling.

April 17, 2024
Wed 1:30 PM EDT

Duration 1H 0M

This live web event has ended.

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