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Scenario Planning: Forecasting the Impact of CAV's and other Uncertainties

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This webinar is led by ITE Transportation Planning Council.

Webinar Description:
Transportation is experiencing several profound transformations, from changes in travel behavior due to the global coronavirus pandemic, to technology advances in vehicle communication and automation. These transformations affect the environment, social equity, and the economy at varying degrees. This webinar will discuss changing travel patterns, increases in teleworking, connected and automated vehicles (CAV), micromobility, and shared mobility, which are examples that bring new challenges and options to passenger and freight travel alike.

To address the potential CAV impacts to the transportation network, the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 7th Edition has included guidance on potential arterial and freeway capacity increases with varying penetration rates. However, this guidance leads to questions about how to incorporate the benefits of CAV’s along with other changes in technology and travel behavior for future planning efforts. When trying to understand how these changes will affect our communities in the future, it is appropriate to consider alternative scenarios. Some local municipalities, regional agencies (i.e., metropolitan planning organizations) and state Departments of Transportation are leading efforts for what an uncertain future might look like using scenario planning. Unlike traditional long-range planning efforts, scenario planning offers the perspective of alternative views of the future.

Learning Objectives:

  • Interpret the HCM guidance to address the impact of CAVs
  • Describe scenario planning modeling tools that can estimate the changes to transportation demand and capacity for alternative outcomes
  • Explain how one agency used scenario planning in the long-range transportation plan development

Policies: The webinar recording will be made available on-demand it will have a shelf life of 60 days to register before it is archived. Participants are able to purchase and retrieve their PDH credit certificate until their access to the content expires. After the content expires and goes into archive, the PDH credit certificate opportunity is forfeited.

Description

This webinar is led by ITE Transportation Planning Council.

Webinar Description:
Transportation is experiencing several profound transformations, from changes in travel behavior due to the global coronavirus pandemic, to technology advances in vehicle communication and automation. These transformations affect the environment, social equity, and the economy at varying degrees. This webinar will discuss changing travel patterns, increases in teleworking, connected and automated vehicles (CAV), micromobility, and shared mobility, which are examples that bring new challenges and options to passenger and freight travel alike.

To address the potential CAV impacts to the transportation network, the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 7th Edition has included guidance on potential arterial and freeway capacity increases with varying penetration rates. However, this guidance leads to questions about how to incorporate the benefits of CAV’s along with other changes in technology and travel behavior for future planning efforts. When trying to understand how these changes will affect our communities in the future, it is appropriate to consider alternative scenarios. Some local municipalities, regional agencies (i.e., metropolitan planning organizations) and state Departments of Transportation are leading efforts for what an uncertain future might look like using scenario planning. Unlike traditional long-range planning efforts, scenario planning offers the perspective of alternative views of the future.

Learning Objectives:

  • Interpret the HCM guidance to address the impact of CAVs
  • Describe scenario planning modeling tools that can estimate the changes to transportation demand and capacity for alternative outcomes
  • Explain how one agency used scenario planning in the long-range transportation plan development

To learn how to purchase your PDH/CM Certificates and see more information about the webinar including fees, please view the webinar course page here.

Policies: Registration for this webinar closes 30 minutes prior to start. The webinar recording will be made available on-demand it will have a shelf life of 60 days to register before it is archived. Participants are able to purchase and retrieve their PDH credit certificate until their access to the content expires. After the content expires and goes into archive, the PDH credit certificate opportunity is forfeited.

Contributors

  • Tom Creasey, P.E., Vice President, Transportation Engineering | Caliper Corporation | Lexington, KY, United States

    Tom Creasey is the Vice President of Transportation Engineering at Caliper Corporation. His career of 40 years includes 30 years as a consultant and 7 years in transportation research. Tom’s areas of expertise include traffic operations, simulation modeling, traffic forecasting and highway safety. He is also the past Chair of the TRB Highway Capacity and Quality of Service Committee, which oversees the Highway Capacity Manual. Tom is a registered Professional Engineer and obtained his Bachelor’s, Master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Civil Engineering from the University of Kentucky.

  • David Roden, P.E., Senior Consulting Manager | AECOM | Arlington, VA, United States

    Mr. Roden manages AECOM’s travel demand forecasting and simulation practice. He has 42 years of experience in travel demand forecasting, traffic simulation, transportation planning, and software development. He pioneered advanced analytical methods used in 24-hour simulations of regional highway and transit networks, dynamic assignments and express toll models, tour mode choice and activity-based models, performance and scenario-based project priority analysis, and the impact of connected and automated vehicles in travel models. He developed the TRANSIMS software suite for FHWA and lead numerous regional planning applications of the tool. He developed the ELToD4 software used for express toll lane modeling by Florida Turnpike Enterprise. He also developed the Mobilitics software used for scenario planning related to COVID-19 and CAV technology evolution.

  • David Anspacher, Transportation Supervisor | Montgomery County Planning| Wheaton, MD, United States

    David Anspacher is a transportation supervisor at the Montgomery County Planning Department and oversees the department’s Multimodal Transportation Planning team. He led the Transportation Working Group for Thrive Montgomery 2050, the update to Montgomery County’s General Plan, and was the Project Manager for the county’s Bicycle Master Plan. Mr. Anspacher has a BA in Economics from Wesleyan University and a Masters in City and Regional Planning from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

  • Jesse McGowan, Associate | Sam Schwartz Engineering |Jersey City, NJ, United States

    Jesse McGowan, AICP, is an Associate at Sam Schwartz Engineering in Jersey City, NJ. Prior to Sam Schwartz, Jesse was a transportation planner at the Montgomery County Planning Department in Montgomery County, MD, where she led Vision Zero and transit planning. Today’s presentation will be about her scenario planning work with the Planning Department. Jesse has 10 years of transportation planning experience, and she is passionate about making multi-modal transportation options accessible, affordable, and safe for all. She has a Masters of City & Regional Planning from UNC Chapel Hill and a Bachelor of Arts from Brown University

December 15, 2022
Thu 2:00 PM EST

Duration 1H 30M

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