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(CDR-1273) Forensic Schedule Analysis on Risk Adjusted Schedules

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Primary Author: Mr John C Livengood CFCC PSP
Co-author(s): Mr Patrick M Kelly PE PSP

Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Application
Venue: 2013 AACE International Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, USA

Abstract: With increasing time and cost pressure from owners, it is likely that risk-adjusted schedules will expand beyond their current uses and become more common in buildings and infrastructure construction. Risk-adjusted CPM schedules use computer modeling to analyze the likely fluctuation of activity durations resulting from a range of uncertainties and risks, and then analyze the effects of the variations on the schedules float as different chains of activities are given different durations and the amount of float changes. The result is a schedule that has a series of potential critical paths with varying degrees of likelihood, rather than a single Critical Path and sub-critical paths. Forensic schedule analysis, however, is predicated on identifying the “single” contemporaneous critical path, often defined as the path with zero float. So what happens when the CPM schedule series has been risk-adjusted so that float is variable and more activities paths are critical? This paper will discuss a theoretical model for performing a delay analysis on a project where the initial baseline and all updates were adjusted for risk.