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(CSC-2179) Ongoing Projects: Forecasting Total Project Cost Using Bottom Up Approach and EV

Primary Author: Firdawos A. Fauzi
Co-Author(s): M. Fadhil Samat

Audience Focus: Basic
Application Type: Practice
Venue: 2016 AACE International Annual Meeting, Toronto, ON, Canada

Abstract: Forecasting total project cost (TPC) for ongoing projects can be very tricky and challenging. In execution phase, project scope, cost and schedule are more refined compared to conceptual or front end phase when the total project cost is estimated for sanction, hence, resulting in higher expectations from project stakeholders in terms of reliability or accuracy of the forecasted total project cost for decision making (e.g. funding, CAPEX rationalization etc.).

After contracts are awarded, contractor’s performance, project location, unplanned scopes and other uncertainties will still potentially cause fluctuations in forecast. This will lead to difficulties for clients to monitor project costs. Nevertheless, proper attention and insights from project management practices will make forecasting total project cost a far less daunting exercise. This paper focuses on forecasting total project cost for ongoing projects from a client perspective using bottom up forecasting and EV technique. Recommendations based on projects lesson learned and industry’s best practices to increase reliability or accuracy in forecasting total project cost (TPC) for ongoing projects will be shared.