Level: Intermediate
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
Venue: 2023 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: Probability, impact, and risk scoring are usually encountered with significant subjectivity during risk identification and qualitative assessment process. This subjectivity is severely reliant on personal bias and level of expertise of the participants in risk workshops. This paper introduces a novel method to reduce such subjectivity using fuzzy-set theory. The developed method accounts for the variation in assessing the probability of occurrence and the potential impacts on the project objectives and interests. The method converts the stakeholders’ linguistic evaluation to a fuzzy number and hence to a crisp number that provides an objective representation of probability, impact, and risk scoring for each identified risk. Finally, results are discussed, and conclusions are drawn highlighting the applications of the developed model and how it can assist owners, contractors and project managers for efficient risk identification, scoring, and analysis process.
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
Venue: 2023 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: Probability, impact, and risk scoring are usually encountered with significant subjectivity during risk identification and qualitative assessment process. This subjectivity is severely reliant on personal bias and level of expertise of the participants in risk workshops. This paper introduces a novel method to reduce such subjectivity using fuzzy-set theory. The developed method accounts for the variation in assessing the probability of occurrence and the potential impacts on the project objectives and interests. The method converts the stakeholders’ linguistic evaluation to a fuzzy number and hence to a crisp number that provides an objective representation of probability, impact, and risk scoring for each identified risk. Finally, results are discussed, and conclusions are drawn highlighting the applications of the developed model and how it can assist owners, contractors and project managers for efficient risk identification, scoring, and analysis process.