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(RISK-910) RP 64R-11 - CPM Schedule Risk Modeling and Analysis: Special Considerations

Primary Author: Mr Christopher P Caddell PE CCE Turner & Townsend

Audience Focus: Intermediate
Application Type: Experience-Based
Venue: 2012 AACE International Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX, USA

Abstract: Recommended Practice 64R-11 "CPM Schedule Risk Modeling and Analysis: Special Considerations" discusses a number of issues that need to be addressed as part of preparing a schedule model, attributing risks to activities, and interpreting the risk results. As the use of schedule risk analysis for projects grows, the use of a CPM model as the basis for the risk analysis is the most common approach. This RP was developed to guide a user in the preparation of the schedule model with risk assignments and interpreting the results to ensure a quality analysis is performed. It discusses the use of a detailed schedule model versus a summary schedule model, specifics about how the schedule model needs to be prepared, how to assign the identified project risks to the activities in the schedule model, and considerations in interpreting the results of the Monte Carlo type simulation. The intent of the RP is to ensure a realistic analysis of the schedule risk on a project.