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(RISK-925) Scope Analytics: A Quantitative Approach to Scope Management for Environmental Remediation Projects

Primary Author: Mr James Wolf Chevron
Co-author(s): Mr Wayne A Crabtree Chevron Environmental Management Company; Mr Timothy John Havranek Cardno ENTRIX

Audience Focus: Basic
Application Type: Experience-Based
Venue: 2012 AACE International Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX, USA

Abstract: Perhaps the most significant source of cost and schedule risk within an environmental remediation project is uncertainty around scope. More specifically, variance in cost and schedule are typically driven by variance in the quantity of impacted material driving a project, not by the efficiency or productivity of field crews. The subsurface is often difficult to characterize in a cost effective manner, so the full extent of contamination is frequently uncertain prior to implementation of the remedial solution. In order to plan, control, and learn from remediation projects, an analytical approach to scope variance is needed.

This paper discusses quantitative methods for decomposing traditional variance measures, such as cost and schedule performance indices, into measures of efficiency, productivity, and scope variance. It then shows how these historical measurements are benchmarked to improve project planning through estimating and risk management. The paper will illustrate a hypothetical application in remedial excavation, but the fundamental theories apply to any scope of work in which the quantity of impacted media is a factor in understanding cost, schedule, and the associated risk.