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(RISK-2470) From Activity-Based Ranging to Risk Driver Approach

Level: Intermediate
Author(s): Craig E. Veteto
Venue: 2017 AACE International Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL

Abstract: This paper focuses on the ranging techniques applied to cost and schedule risk analysis. More specifically, it will explore the risk driver approach and activity-based ranging when conducting cost and schedule risk assessments. There will be a brief overview of the two approaches with a comparison of the key aspects of each. There will be an in-depth discussion of the reasons for a shift in approach from activity-based ranging to risk driver approach. The challenges faced from a practitioner perspective as well as those experienced while persuading other stakeholders within the organization will be presented. There will be a discussion of the real-world results of the newly adopted approach. The risk driver approach is not a wholesale revamp of the cost and schedule risk analysis method, but a change in the ranging technique that produces an improved end product. The risk driver approach is not new, and papers published previously have described the technique. This paper will reinforce the benefits and provide insight to the challenges of converting from a legacy approach.